Will Economic Brushfires Prove Too Virulent to Contain?

The global economic meltdown has already caused bank failures, bankruptcies, plant closings, and foreclosures and will, in the coming year, leave many tens of millions unemployed across the planet. But another perilous consequence of the crash of 2008 has only recently made its appearance: increased civil unrest and ethnic strife. Someday, perhaps, war may follow.

As people lose confidence in the ability of markets and governments to solve the global crisis, they are likely to erupt into violent protests or to assault others they deem responsible for their plight, including government officials, plant managers, landlords, immigrants, and ethnic minorities. (The list could, in the future, prove long and unnerving.) If the present economic disaster turns into what President Obama has referred to as a “lost decade,” the result could be a global landscape filled with economically-fueled upheavals.

Indeed, if you want to be grimly impressed, hang a world map on your wall and start inserting red pins where violent episodes have already occurred. Athens (Greece), Longnan (China), Port-au-Prince (Haiti), Riga (Latvia), Santa Cruz (Bolivia), Sofia (Bulgaria), Vilnius (Lithuania), and Vladivostok (Russia) would be a start. Many other cities from Reykjavik, Paris, Rome, and Zaragoza to Moscow and Dublin have witnessed huge protests over rising unemployment and falling wages that remained orderly thanks in part to the presence of vast numbers of riot police. If you inserted orange pins at these locations — none as yet in the United States — your map would already look aflame with activity. And if you’re a gambling man or woman, it’s a safe bet that this map will soon be far better populated with red and orange pins.

For the most part, such upheavals, even when violent, are likely to remain localized in nature, and disorganized enough that government forces will be able to bring them under control within days or weeks, even if — as with Athens for six days last December — urban paralysis sets in due to rioting, tear gas, and police cordons. That, at least, has been the case so far. It is entirely possible, however, that, as the economic crisis worsens, some of these incidents will metastasize into far more intense and long-lasting events: armed rebellions, military takeovers, civil conflicts, even economically fueled wars between states.

Every outbreak of violence has its own distinctive origins and characteristics. All, however, are driven by a similar combination of anxiety about the future and lack of confidence in the ability of established institutions to deal with the problems at hand. And just as the economic crisis has proven global in ways not seen before, so local incidents — especially given the almost instantaneous nature of modern communications — have a potential to spark others in far-off places, linked only in a virtual sense.

A Global Pandemic of Economically Driven Violence

The riots that erupted in the spring of 2008 in response to rising food prices suggested the speed with which economically-related violence can spread. It is unlikely that Western news sources captured all such incidents, but among those recorded in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal were riots in Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, and Senegal.

In Haiti, for example, thousands of protesters stormed the presidential palace in Port-au-Prince and demanded food handouts, only to be repelled by government troops and UN peacekeepers. Other countries, including Pakistan and Thailand, quickly sought to deter such assaults by deploying troops at farms and warehouses throughout the country.

The riots only abated at summer’s end when falling energy costs brought food prices crashing down as well. (The cost of food is now closely tied to the price of oil and natural gas because petrochemicals are so widely and heavily used in the cultivation of grains.) Ominously, however, this is sure to prove but a temporary respite, given the epic droughts now gripping breadbasket regions of the United States, Argentina, Australia, China, the Middle East, and Africa. Look for the prices of wheat, soybeans, and possibly rice to rise in the coming months — just when billions of people in the developing world are sure to see their already marginal incomes plunging due to the global economic collapse.

Food riots were but one form of economic violence that made its bloody appearance in 2008. As economic conditions worsened, protests against rising unemployment, government ineptitude, and the unaddressed needs of the poor erupted as well. In India, for example, violent protests threatened stability in many key areas. Although usually described as ethnic, religious, or caste disputes, these outbursts were typically driven by economic anxiety and a pervasive feeling that someone else’s group was faring better than yours — and at your expense.

In April, for example, six days of intense rioting in Indian-controlled Kashmir were largely blamed on religious animosity between the majority Muslim population and the Hindu-dominated Indian government; equally important, however, was a deep resentment over what many Kashmiri Muslims experienced as discrimination in jobs, housing, and land use. Then, in May, thousands of nomadic shepherds known as Gujjars shut down roads and trains leading to the city of Agra, home of the Taj Mahal, in a drive to be awarded special economic rights; more than 30 people were killed when the police fired into crowds. In October, economically-related violence erupted in Assam in the country’s far northeast, where impoverished locals are resisting an influx of even poorer, mostly illegal immigrants from nearby Bangladesh.

Economically-driven clashes also erupted across much of eastern China in 2008. Such events, labeled “mass incidents” by Chinese authorities, usually involve protests by workers over sudden plant shutdowns, lost pay, or illegal land seizures. More often than not, protestors demanded compensation from company managers or government authorities, only to be greeted by club-wielding police.

Needless to say, the leaders of China’s Communist Party have been reluctant to acknowledge such incidents. This January, however, the magazine Liaowang (Outlook Weekly) reported that layoffs and wage disputes had triggered a sharp increase in such “mass incidents,” particularly along the country’s eastern seaboard, where much of its manufacturing capacity is located.

By December, the epicenter of such sporadic incidents of violence had moved from the developing world to Western Europe and the former Soviet Union. Here, the protests have largely been driven by fears of prolonged unemployment, disgust at government malfeasance and ineptitude, and a sense that “the system,” however defined, is incapable of satisfying the future aspirations of large groups of citizens.

One of the earliest of this new wave of upheavals occurred in Athens, Greece, on December 6, 2008, after police shot and killed a 15-year-old schoolboy during an altercation in a crowded downtown neighborhood. As news of the killing spread throughout the city, hundreds of students and young people surged into the city center and engaged in pitched battles with riot police, throwing stones and firebombs. Although government officials later apologized for the killing and charged the police officer involved with manslaughter, riots broke out repeatedly in the following days in Athens and other Greek cities. Angry youths attacked the police — widely viewed as agents of the establishment — as well as luxury shops and hotels, some of which were set on fire. By one estimate, the six days of riots caused $1.3 billion in damage to businesses at the height of the Christmas shopping season.

Russia also experienced a spate of violent protests in December, triggered by the imposition of high tariffs on imported automobiles. Instituted by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to protect an endangered domestic auto industry (whose sales were expected to shrink by up to 50% in 2009), the tariffs were a blow to merchants in the Far Eastern port of Vladivostok who benefited from a nationwide commerce in used Japanese vehicles. When local police refused to crack down on anti-tariff protests, the authorities were evidently worried enough to fly in units of special forces from Moscow, 3,700 miles away.

In January, incidents of this sort seemed to be spreading through Eastern Europe. Between January 13th and 16th, anti-government protests involving violent clashes with the police erupted in the Latvian capital of Riga, the Bulgarian capital of Sofia, and the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius. It is already essentially impossible to keep track of all such episodes, suggesting that we are on the verge of a global pandemic of economically driven violence.

A Perfect Recipe for Instability

While most such incidents are triggered by an immediate event — a tariff, the closure of local factory, the announcement of government austerity measures — there are systemic factors at work as well. While economists now agree that we are in the midst of a recession deeper than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s, they generally assume that this downturn — like all others since World War II — will be followed in a year, or two, or three, by the beginning of a typical recovery.

There are good reasons to suspect that this might not be the case — that poorer countries (along with many people in the richer countries) will have to wait far longer for such a recovery, or may see none at all. Even in the United States, 54% of Americans now believe that “the worst” is “yet to come” and only 7% that the economy has “turned the corner,” according to a recent Ipsos/McClatchy poll; fully a quarter think the crisis will last more than four years. Whether in the US, Russia, China, or Bangladesh, it is this underlying anxiety — this suspicion that things are far worse than just about anyone is saying — which is helping to fuel the global epidemic of violence.

The World Bank’s most recent status report, Global Economic Prospects 2009, fulfills those anxieties in two ways. It refuses to state the worst, even while managing to hint, in terms too clear to be ignored, at the prospect of a long-term, or even permanent, decline in economic conditions for many in the world. Nominally upbeat — as are so many media pundits — regarding the likelihood of an economic recovery in the not-too-distant future, the report remains full of warnings about the potential for lasting damage in the developing world if things don’t go exactly right.

Two worries, in particular, dominate Global Economic Prospects 2009: that banks and corporations in the wealthier countries will cease making investments in the developing world, choking off whatever growth possibilities remain; and that food costs will rise uncomfortably, while the use of farmlands for increased biofuels production will result in diminished food availability to hundreds of millions.

Despite its Pollyanna-ish passages on an economic rebound, the report does not mince words when discussing what the almost certain coming decline in First World investment in Third World countries would mean:

“Should credit markets fail to respond to the robust policy interventions taken so far, the consequences for developing countries could be very serious. Such a scenario would be characterized by… substantial disruption and turmoil, including bank failures and currency crises, in a wide range of developing countries. Sharply negative growth in a number of developing countries and all of the attendant repercussions, including increased poverty and unemployment, would be inevitable.”

In the fall of 2008, when the report was written, this was considered a “worst-case scenario.” Since then, the situation has obviously worsened radically, with financial analysts reporting a virtual freeze in worldwide investment. Equally troubling, newly industrialized countries that rely on exporting manufactured goods to richer countries for much of their national income have reported stomach-wrenching plunges in sales, producing massive plant closings and layoffs.

The World Bank’s 2008 survey also contains troubling data about the future availability of food. Although insisting that the planet is capable of producing enough foodstuffs to meet the needs of a growing world population, its analysts were far less confident that sufficient food would be available at prices people could afford, especially once hydrocarbon prices begin to rise again. With ever more farmland being set aside for biofuels production and efforts to increase crop yields through the use of “miracle seeds” losing steam, the Bank’s analysts balanced their generally hopeful outlook with a caveat: “If biofuels-related demand for crops is much stronger or productivity performance disappoints, future food supplies may be much more expensive than in the past.”

Combine these two World Bank findings — zero economic growth in the developing world and rising food prices — and you have a perfect recipe for unrelenting civil unrest and violence. The eruptions seen in 2008 and early 2009 will then be mere harbingers of a grim future in which, in a given week, any number of cities reel from riots and civil disturbances which could spread like multiple brushfires in a drought.

Mapping a World at the Brink

Survey the present world, and it’s all too easy to spot a plethora of potential sites for such multiple eruptions — or far worse. Take China. So far, the authorities have managed to control individual “mass incidents,” preventing them from coalescing into something larger. But in a country with a more than two-thousand-year history of vast millenarian uprisings, the risk of such escalation has to be on the minds of every Chinese leader.

On February 2nd, a top Chinese Party official, Chen Xiwen, announced that, in the last few months of 2008 alone, a staggering 20 million migrant workers, who left rural areas for the country’s booming cities in recent years, had lost their jobs. Worse yet, they had little prospect of regaining them in 2009. If many of these workers return to the countryside, they may find nothing there either, not even land to work.

Under such circumstances, and with further millions likely to be shut out of coastal factories in the coming year, the prospect of mass unrest is high. No wonder the government announced a $585 billion stimulus plan aimed at generating rural employment and, at the same time, called on security forces to exercise discipline and restraint when dealing with protesters. Many analysts now believe that, as exports continue to dry up, rising unemployment could lead to nationwide strikes and protests that might overwhelm ordinary police capabilities and require full-scale intervention by the military (as occurred in Beijing during the Tiananmen Square demonstrations of 1989).

Or take many of the Third World petro-states that experienced heady boosts in income when oil prices were high, allowing governments to buy off dissident groups or finance powerful internal security forces. With oil prices plunging from $147 per barrel of crude oil to less than $40 dollars, such countries, from Angola to shaky Iraq, now face severe instability.

Nigeria is a typical case in point: When oil prices were high, the central government in Abuja raked in billions every year, enough to enrich elites in key parts of the country and subsidize a large military establishment; now that prices are low, the government will have a hard time satisfying all these previously well-fed competing obligations, which means the risk of internal disequilibrium will escalate. An insurgency in the oil-producing Niger Delta region, fueled by popular discontent with the failure of oil wealth to trickle down from the capital, is already gaining momentum and is likely to grow stronger as government revenues shrivel; other regions, equally disadvantaged by national revenue-sharing policies, will be open to disruptions of all sorts, including heightened levels of internecine warfare.

Bolivia is another energy producer that seems poised at the brink of an escalation in economic violence. One of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, it harbors substantial oil and natural gas reserves in its eastern, lowland regions. A majority of the population — many of Indian descent — supports President Evo Morales, who seeks to exercise strong state control over the reserves and use the proceeds to uplift the nation’s poor. But a majority of those in the eastern part of the country, largely controlled by a European-descended elite, resent central government interference and seek to control the reserves themselves. Their efforts to achieve greater autonomy have led to repeated clashes with government troops and, in deteriorating times, could set the stage for a full-scale civil war.

Given a global situation in which one startling, often unexpected development follows another, prediction is perilous. At a popular level, however, the basic picture is clear enough: continued economic decline combined with a pervasive sense that existing systems and institutions are incapable of setting things right is already producing a potentially lethal brew of anxiety, fear, and rage. Popular explosions of one sort or another are inevitable.

Some sense of this new reality appears to have percolated up to the highest reaches of the US intelligence community. In testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 12th, Admiral Dennis C. Blair, the new Director of National Intelligence, declared, “The primary near-term security concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications… Statistical modeling shows that economic crises increase the risk of regime-threatening instability if they persist over a one to two year period” — certain to be the case in the present situation.

Blair did not specify which countries he had in mind when he spoke of “regime-threatening instability” — a new term in the American intelligence lexicon, at least when associated with economic crises — but it is clear from his testimony that US officials are closely watching dozens of shaky nations in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and Central Asia.

Now go back to that map on your wall with all those red and orange pins in it and proceed to color in appropriate countries in various shades of red and orange to indicate recent striking declines in gross national product and rises in unemployment rates. Without 16 intelligence agencies under you, you’ll still have a pretty good idea of the places that Blair and his associates are eyeing in terms of instability as the future darkens on a planet at the brink.

- From Prophecy News Watch

Forget about rising global water levels: Researchers, policymakers and environmental campaigners have identified 25 potential future threats to the environment including nanomaterials, manmade viruses and biomimetic robots. In addition to well-publicized risks such as toxic nanomaterials, the acidification of the ocean and increasingly frequent extreme weather events, the list includes some spooky scifi sounding possibilities:

• Biomimetic robots that could become new invasive species.

• Experiments involving climate engineering, for instance ocean ‘fertilization’ and deploying solar shields

• Increased demand for the biomass needed to make biofuel.

• Disruption to marine ecosystems caused by offshore power generation.

• Experiments to control invasive species using genetically engineered viruses.

William Sutherland, a zoologist at the University of Cambridge, led a series of horizon-scanning workshops where the threats where highlighted.

Some of the threats identified are more speculative, such as robots that imitate animal behavior and microbes made from synthetic molecules and might eventually behave like invasive species.

- From Prophecy News Watch

Governments around the world are finding reasons to install surveillance cameras, but few are keeping account of the costs and benefits that come from those CCTV systems. Chicago, in its bid to follow in China’s steps as host of the Olympics, is the most recent one to do so. By spending millions of dollars, Chicago aims to have a camera “on every corner” in preparation for the 2016 Summer Games that it hopes to host. But they are doing so without thoughtful implementation or an understanding of the realities of around-the-clock government surveillance.

Under the auspices of fighting crime and preventing terrorism, Chicago’s Police Superintendent Jody Weis is hyping CCTV as having “limitless” crime-fighting potential. The reality, as is evident to anyone who has actually researched this type of thing, is that studies have shown municipal surveillance cameras to have little to no positive effect on crime. Further, London is widely known to have the most extensive CCTV network in the world, but that served as little deterrent to the terrorists of July 2005. But instead of bringing this up, the Sun-Times and Chicago officials point to a test in which “live video was used to catch a petty thief in the act of sticking his hand in a Salvation Army kettle outside Macy’s State Street.” Given the cost in both dollars and civil liberties, it is hard to justify catching petty criminals stealing some coins from charity.

But according to another city official, “civil libertarians have nothing to fear” from the blanket surveillance system because police operating the pan-and-tilt CCTV cameras see only what you would see if you were sitting on a park bench in front of that building.” The difference, of course, is that by extending government power to all facets of public life, you extend the asymmetry of power between citizens and government (especially the corrupt ones for which Illinois is known). Indeed, we have already seen examples of “park bench” type cameras being abused by government.

What Chicago needs is an honest assessment of surveillance and a commitment to real police work, not hyped technology. If they want to follow in China’s footsteps, it would be best to avoid the Big Brother ones.

- From Prophecy News Watch

Surveillance cameras and security monitoring systems provide us with convenience and safety, but there’s a cost – a loss of privacy.

From the moment you step out of your apartment and get into the elevator, you’re followed.

A mass of surveillance cameras, mobile phones, credit cards, T-money transportation cards, e-mail and messenger programs leave behind an electronic trail, whether you like it or not.

We see cameras everywhere, but who monitors them? Is the loss of privacy worth it? And what exactly are the benefits?

JoongAng Sunday visited some 24-hour security centers to take a look at what goes on behind the scenes.

Fighting fraud

Eight employees wearing headsets at the Fraud Detection System team at Kookmin Bank building in Gwanghwamun, central Seoul, monitor a set of computer monitors. Suddenly, one of the workers, Oh Sae-jung, clicks on a number and speaks to one of the bank’s clients.

“We spotted a transaction on a credit card that’s not been in use for the past four years,” Oh said. “I want to confirm you made a 35,000 won [$23.41] purchase at a Myeong-dong cosmetics shop at 15:44:29.”

The16 members of the team work 24 hours a day in shifts to watch over the transactions of over 7.5 million clients.

“Kookmin Bank has all the details of its clients dating back to 1984,” explained Cho Jung-hui, the manager of FDS. “We protect our clients from fraud with a system that analyzes our clients’ purchasing patterns. This system alerts us whenever something seems amiss and we contact our clients right away.”

It’s quite a task.

“An average of 2.3 million transactions take place in a day and we usually notice about one or two fraudulent cases,” Cho went on.

While this type of service can provide KB clients with security and convenience, such close monitoring is not something everyone welcomes.

Privacy probe

A vehicle passes through a tollgate at the Gyeongbu Expressway via the High Pass lane.

Irked by what he felt was an invasion of his privacy, Kim, 43, a resident of Sungnae-dong, southeastern Seoul, who only wanted his surname used in this article, recently filed a civil petition with the Financial Supervisory Service.

“I was enjoying a weekend getaway with my family when I received a call from an insurance company asking if I’d be interested in a special weekend package. The employee seemed to know quite a bit of personal information from my credit card. I felt very uncomfortable,” Kim said.

Another example is the tollgate leading to the Gyeongbu Expressway in Gungnae-dong, Gyeonggi, where vehicles quickly drive by the “High Pass” lane, a system set up in 2000 to help reduce congestion.

Once a driver uses the special lane, his or her identity, the location of the tollgate, the time the vehicle passed through the gate and the amount transferred to the Korea Expressway Corporation computer server is recorded on a database for five years.

So even if you can’t remember where you were on a particular day five years ago, the KEC can find out.

Is this an invasion of privacy? It’s a matter of opinion, but the police think the benefits outweigh the losses.

Law enforcement

Criminals have the most to lose by living in an overly surveilled state since well-hidden cameras easily pick up information that the police can use to make arrests.

The cameras at tollgates, for instance, capture images of license plates, which are stored for 10 days, or longer if the police make the necessary request, explained Kim Yong-il of the KEC.

“Detectives frequently contact us with requests for data to be used in their investigations,” Kim added.

At a CCTV Security Center in Yeoksam-dong operated by the Gangnam District Office in southern Seoul, a large monitor is divided into hundreds of small squares that display images from 412 surveillance cameras. Starting next month, the district office has plans to install 110 more cameras to bring the total up to 522.

In the 12.6 billion won ($8.3 million) center eight policemen from Seoul Suseok Police Station in Gangnam monitor a geographic information system 24/7. If a crime is radioed in, the screens enlarge the map to track fleeing criminals.

“The cameras can rotate 360 degrees, produce high-definition images and zoom in on objects 100 meters [328 feet] away,” said Choi Min-hang, manager of the Gangnam District Public Administration department. The images are stored for 30 days to assist police investigations.

“We use the images to cross-reference with a criminal records database,” said a spokesman from the National Police Agency who wished to remain anonymous.

However, it should be noted that although images from surveillance cameras provide clues, they aren’t that useful. According to the police spokesman, the images are used in less than 5 percent of total arrests.

In addition to the 412 surveillance cameras, the Gangnam District Office also operates 147 cameras to keep tabs on illegal parking.

“It’s difficult to come up with the exact number but at a rough estimate, over 2 million surveillance cameras are installed throughout the country,” said Lee Jae-ho of the Gangnam District Office.

Big Brother’s watching

Mobile phones are now an essential communications tool, but they can be used not just to talk with but also to track others.

Lee, an office worker who only wishes his family name to be used, was at work recently when he got a text message from a center for senior citizens.

He clicked the “O.K.” button on his phone and a small map appeared on the screen with a red dot indicating the whereabouts of his 80-year-old mother. He gets similar updates every hour.

“I subscribed to a location-tracking service out of concern for my elderly mother. I feel a lot happier knowing where she is,” he said.

The detailed information of those subscribed to the tracking service is kept in the corresponding telecommunications company for six months.

“The current tracking service is based on the BTS, or base transceiver station, and therefore it’s not that accurate, but the new line of mobile phones to be released later this year will all contain GPS [global positioning systems] and will provide a lot more accurate information,” said one telecommunications employee, who didn’t wish to be named.

Offices are no different. There are surveillance cameras installed in almost every nook and cranny, and any company can monitor e-mail and messenger communication if it has the right software.

Monitoring who wrote what to whom and who printed what is very easy.

But what’s the downside to surveillance? Admittedly, there are benefits, especially if criminals get caught and crimes are averted, but what if we don’t want other people to know about us? What choices do we have about protecting ourselves?

“Surveillance cameras, T-money, bank transaction information, mobile phone records all leave a ‘digital footprint’ or ‘digital shadow.’ While the information can be used for police purposes, it can also be leaked, which could put a lot of people at risk,” said Professor Lee Young-suk of the Digital Culture Research Center.

Right or wrong, Big Brother is most certainly watching.

- From Prophecy News Watch

One of the nation’s largest Protestant denominations would allow gay clergy in committed relationships to pastor local churches, under a new proposal from the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.

Officially, all unmarried clergy in the 4.9 million-member denomination must remain celibate. But since 2007, Lutheran bishops have agreed not to discipline gay clergy who are sexually active.

On Thursday, a Lutheran task force on human sexuality recommended that local churches and synods — the Lutheran version of a diocese — decide the issue for themselves. If their idea is approved at this summer’s Churchwide Assembly, the denomination would become the largest in the U.S. to allow non-celibate gay clergy.

Lutheran leaders hope the new proposal, which would let churches hire gay pastors involved in lifelong, monogamous relationships, can avoid the bitter conflicts that have plagued other denominations, like the Episcopal Church.

Church spokesman John Brooks said Lutherans, like many Christians, are divided over homosexuality. The new proposal allows them to agree to disagree.

“It doesn’t require a church to call a pastor who is in a committed same-sex relationship if they don’t want to do that,” he said.

The Rev. Rick Roberts, pastor of St. John’s Lutheran Church in Donelson, said members of his church are split on the issue. He believes the new proposal provides a workable solution. “It’s time for us to make a decision and move on,” Roberts said.

Roberts points out that while Jesus described marriage as being between a man and a woman, he never addressed homosexuality.

“I wish Jesus had said something about this, but he didn’t,” Roberts said.

The task force’s proposal hinges on the Lutheran concept of what’s called a bound conscience. The idea holds that Christians can disagree on what the Bible says on a wide range of social issues and still worship together.

The new proposal faces two hurdles before becoming reality. First, it must pass the denomination’s board of directors at the end of March. Then the Churchwide Assembly, a mixture of clergy and lay people, will vote during its August meeting in Minneapolis.

The Rev. Kevin Martin, pastor of Celebration Lutheran Church in Mt. Juliet, said his congregation has avoided disputes over sexuality. He doesn’t think the new proposal will affect his congregation.

“We’ll just keep going about our business,” he said.

The new proposal could resolve a conflict in the Southeastern Synod, which includes Middle Tennessee.

In 2007, the Rev. Bradley Schmeling, a gay Lutheran pastor in Atlanta, was removed from the denomination’s clergy rolls. He’s been allowed to remain at the church, for now.

Southeastern Bishop H. Julian Gordy, a Franklin resident, said giving churches a local option is a new idea for Lutherans. Though some Lutherans believe that women should not be ordained, for example, synods are not allowed to bar women as pastors.

Still, he believes that the compromise could work.

“But it’s going to be hard.”

- From Prophecy News Watch

When stories like this come along, it’s tempting to remind everyone of similar people and events that have turned the Episcopal Church into a laughingstock for reasons completely unrelated to homosexuality, if only so we can have them in one convenient place the next time something happens.

There’s the pagan seminar in the Diocese of Eastern Michigan, Bill Melnyk the Druid priest, Maury Johnston the gay Wiccan lay activist, whirling with the sufis in Seattle, the ridiculous labyrinth trend, the Hindu mass in Los Angeles… but there are so many more that listing them all every time something like this happens threatens to become a full-time job.

A year and half ago, The Rev. Ann Holmes Redding was inhibited by Rhode Island Bishop Geralyn Wolf for claiming to be both Muslim and Christian. Now the Diocese of Northern Michigan has announced that its only nominee for bishop – The Rev. Kevin Thew Forrester – is also a Zen Buddhist. Not the kind who lived down the hall from you in your college dorm – no, Forrester has actually received Buddhist lay ordination.

Kevin Thew Forrester received Buddhist “lay ordination” – so now he’s walking the path of Christianity and Zen Buddhism together

This is, of course, the natural progression of “progressivism” and something we continually warn against: It starts with labyrinths, continues with Buddhist monks constructing mandalas in a cathedral, and over the background noise of pagan priests and books about love spells, proceeds to Muslim preistesses and now a Buddhist bishop.

Few on the U.P. seem too concerned about this, certainly not this blogger who writes:

The Episcopal Diocese of Northern Michigan makes the upper peninsula of Michigan. A beautiful place without very many people. They have been a leader in finding new ways to do church. Once again they have selected their candidate for Bishop and have done it in a new way. the continue to think out of the box and most of the things they have tried have worked very well.

Really? “Worked very well”?

Let’s go to the chart. Oh look – the diocese that’s about to consecrate a Zen Buddhist as Bishop shows a steady decline of over one-third in baptized members and average Sunday attendance over the past decade. Imagine that.

A page at the diocesan web site lists Forrester as being on the diocese’s “Core Team”, he’s head of “LifeCycles Formation Development,” he’s on the Relationships & Partnerships committee, and the Ecclesial Court. Forrester is obviously an active proponent of non-Christian spiritual formation, such as:

THE HEALING ARTS CENTER & THE INTERFAITH FORUM OF MARQUETTE are sponsoring an “interfaith conversation” and a workshop on Meditation & the Enneagram, to be led by the Buddhist teacher, Santikaro. On Friday, October 5th, Santikaro will lead an interfaith conversation open to the public. The exact time and place of the venue are still in process. On Saturday, from 10-4 at the Healing Arts Center, located in the Morgan Chapel of St. Paul’s, Santikaro will lead a practical workshop exploring the relationship between meditation and the Enneagram. The Enneagram is a system with ancient roots, which integrates spirituality and psychology. Both events are open to the public. There is no fee, but donations are gladly accepted. For further information on either event, contact Kevin G. Thew Forrester at (906)-226-2912 or email at Kevin.Thew-
Forrester@StPaulsMqt.org

That’s from the diocesan newsletter of September, 2007

Northern Michigan’s response to the primates’ meeting in Dar es Salaam in February 2007 is legendary around these parts . Forrester is the author of “I Have Called You Friends: An Invitation to Ministry,” which was described by one reviewer this way:

He borrows heavily from feminist theology, and picks up Walt Winks’ concept of “domination”. He also hints at choas and organisation theory, implying that order emerges from chaos through a process of self-organisation. Hence church leaders should resist the temptation to impose order, since a liberated community will generate more creativity…
…
Jesus said, “I have called you friends…” Kevin Thew Forrester, would like to show us how to turn clerical domination structures into the kingdom of heaven. Amen to that!

Over at MCJ, Christopher mentions that there are rumblings afoot by “one senior diocesan bishop” to the effect that “objections may be raised” to Forrester’s being seated in the House of Bishops, because the body is “still sufficiently faithful to recognize the total self-contradiction this would involve and deny consent.”

If you believe that the fey bedwetters in the HoB will do anything more than squeak briefly and weakly about “concerns” over Forrester’s full-on embrace of Zen Buddhism, I have some beachfront property in northwestern New Mexico I want to sell you.

Taking the broad view, though, one has to ask: Should this really be more of a concern than the theology espoused by the presiding bishop herself? I would say “yes,” but only by a nose, because it is one thing for the House of Bishops to be populated by many men and women who claim to be Christian only, but whose theology is, at best, suspect; and it being populated by people who publicly affirm their allegiance to a faith other than Christianity. Nothing like a little strange doctrine to show how inclusive we are, right?

- From Prophecy News Watch

The plan, which has influential support in Germany and France, proposes to set up a “Synchronised Armed Forces Europe”, or Safe, as a first step towards a true European military force.

The move comes as France, a supporter of an EU army, prepares to rejoin Nato and to take over one of the Alliance’s top military posts. General Charles de Gaulle withdrew French forces in 1966.

Geoffrey Van Orden MEP, the Conservative European defence spokesman, warned that British ministers are “in denial”.

He said: “They are sleepwalking towards a European army and seem to have little awareness of what is going on.”

The EU proposals, drafted by Karl von Wogau, a German MEP, envisage a “dynamic to further development of co-operation between national armed forces so that they become increasingly synchronised – this process [should] be given the name Safe”.

There are also plans to create an EU “Council of Defence Ministers” and “a European statute for soldiers within the framework of Safe governing training standards, operational doctrine and freedom of operational action”.

Hans-Gert Poettering, the European Parliament’s President and close ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has supported Safe as a “link” to the “objective of a European army”.

“Safe can broaden the debate on the right steps towards closer synchronisation, bringing in those people who cannot yet conceive of a European army,” he said in a recent speech.

President Nicolas Sarkozy’s will use a summit marking Nato’s 60th birthday celebrations in April to pledge France to the Nato’s military command structure.

Mr Van Orden, a former Brigadier-General who served at Nato HQ in the 1990s, is concerned that in the process the Alliance “is going to be skewed to suit the EU”.

“A key element of a likely deal is to give France something Britain has never had – one of the top two military posts in Nato,” he said.

France is expected to play a key part in shaping Nato’s future role by taking the job of Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, or Sact, a post traditionally held by a United States Flag or General officer.

“We are giving a nation, which for nearly 50 years has been committed to marginalising Nato and building European structures to exclude the Americans, the job of re-jigging the transatlantic Alliance,” said Mr Van Orden.

- From Prophecy News Watch

Stacks of portraits of Mahmoud Abbas stand unused, gathering dust in the office of his Fatah movement in Beirut’s Shatila Palestinian refugee camp. Posters of Abbas — President of the Palestinian Authority, leader of Fatah and chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) — would normally hang in offices and on street corners throughout Lebanon’s 12 Palestinian refugee camps. But ever since Israel’s incursion into Gaza earlier this year, Abbas has become politically radioactive to the approximately 400,000 refugees languishing in Lebanon, who were livid at his failure to act in defense of the beleaguered Gazans. “Abbas embarrassed us,” says one Fatah official charged with delivering Abbas portraits in the camp. “Sometimes we force people to take the posters, but they never put them up.” But Abbas may be about to lose a lot more than pride of place for his portrait in the seething refuge! e camps.

The stack of unused posters is but a symptom of the collapse of support for Fatah in Lebanon, home to the most politically active population of Palestinians outside the West Bank and Gaza. It was the movement’s traditional support there that underscored Abbas’ mandate, as chairman of the PLO, to negotiate on behalf of all Palestinians. But the failure of Abbas’ negotiation strategy to deliver any meaningful change for the prospects of Lebanon’s Palestinian refugees has led many — like their kin in the West Bank and Gaza — to transfer their support to Hamas and other radical Islamist groups.

The refugees of Lebanon have always been more militant than their brethren inside the Palestinian territories. Most are descendants of those who fled Israeli forces in Galilee during the war of 1948; since then they have been prevented by Israel from returning to their homes. Having lived for six decades without citizenship or basic civil rights in the squalor and despair of refugee camps in a country that bars refugees from owning property and from entering some 70 professions, they have long provided a fertile recruiting environment for militant groups.

Even Abbas’ more popular predecessor as Fatah leader, Yassir Arafat, struggled to sell the Oslo peace process to his supporters in Lebanon, where members of Fatah remained committed to armed struggle to “liberate Palestine” and still run guerrilla-training academies. These days, however, even that hard-line Fatah stance is no longer enough for most Palestinians here. High-ranking officials of Abbas’ own party fear that he will trade away their right of return to what is now Israel. “Yassir Arafat went into negotiations with the olive branch in one hand and a weapon in the other hand,” says one Beirut Fatah commander. “But all Mahmoud Abbas does is negotiate. He gets nothing, but he keeps negotiating. Palestinians believe in military operations because they want to go back to Palestine. They don’t want to negotiate.” (Read “After Israel’s Election, Palestinians Weigh New Intifadeh.”)

Hamas, meanwhile, is continuing to grow. The movement uses its financial backing from Iran and other countries to build clinics, kindergartens and social-services centers in every camp. Hamas supporters also get vouchers for medical care at hospitals run by Hizballah, the Lebanese anti-Israeli militant group that’s also supported by Iran. And the refugees hear stories about leaders in the West Bank growing rich from embezzled international aid, while refugees see almost nothing in social services from the Palestinian Authority, which is controlled by Fatah. “Fatah isn’t helping people,” says the Beirut Fatah commander. “Hamas is taking advantage of this. They are entering deep, deep into the population.”

So, while leaders of the two groups are holding reconciliation talks in Cairo this week with a view toward creating a unity government that can oversee the rebuilding of Gaza with international aid, in Lebanon the two sides are preparing for confrontation. Fatah officials accuse Hamas of secretly plotting a takeover of the camps in Lebanon in the same way that the movement took control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas officials say they have no military wing in Lebanon, but last month, a fight broke out in Shatila when Fatah men discovered Hamas moving weapons into the camp. In a different camp in southern Lebanon last month, Fatah fighters were taken by surprise when confronted by well-trained Hamas fighters. “They had a military plan, they were well-armed, they screamed “Allahu Akbar,” and they were very brutal,” says one Fatah man involved in that clash. And one Hamas fighter told TIME that he and others members fr! om the group’s military wing are being trained in Syria before returning to Lebanon. Fatah military officials are busy ordering weapons, ammunition and boots for their men.

Victory in Lebanon would give Hamas a significant new strategic advantage. By agreement of the Arab League, Palestinian camps lie outside the jurisdiction of the Lebanese state, so control of the camps would allow Hamas to train and operate largely without interference from Israel or any Arab states. Moreover, unlike in the Gaza Strip, which is surrounded by an Israeli blockade, in Lebanon Hamas could easily receive weapons by sea, by land from Syria or with help from Hizballah. And a Hamas victory in Lebanon could be the beginning of the end of Fatah. “We already lost Jordan and Syria,” says another Fatah commander in Lebanon. “All of them sympathize with Hamas. If we lose Lebanon, then Fatah and all of what it represents will be over.”

- From Prophecy News Watch

In recent days, four key developments have clicked in to edge Iran and Israel much closer to a military denouement with profound consequences for American oil that the nation is not prepared to meet.

First, Iran has proven it can successfully launch a satellite into outer space as it did on February 2. Teheran claimed, to the incredulity of Western governments, that the satellite was to monitor earthquakes and enhance communications. Few believe that, especially since America’s own space program continuously launches unpublished military satellite missions. Teheran plans three more satellites this year, creating an easily weaponized space net that worries American military planners.

Second, the International Atomic Energy Agency last week admitted that it had underestimated Iran’s nuclear stockpile by about one-third. The watchdog group now confirms Iran possesses 2,227 lbs. of nuclear material, sufficient to create at least one nuclear bomb. That stockpile includes 1,010 kilograms of low-enriched uranium hexafluoride, or approximately 700 kilograms containing the vital uranium 235 isotope, the stuff needed to weaponize.

Third, Iran has ramped up its enrichment program with thousands of new homegrown, highly advanced centrifuges. As The Cutting Edge News reported in April 2008, Iran wants 6,000 centrifuges to speed the enrichment of weapons-grade material. The number of working centrifuges now exceeds 5,400, including 164 new ones believed to be the faster and more efficient IR-2 and IR-3 models made in Iran. These new Iranian centrifuges are at least as sophisticated as its recently imported P-2 models.

American policymakers are now convinced that Iran, despite all protests and charades, is in a mad dash to create a deliverable nuclear weapon. The Obama administration has almost openly abandoned the assertions of the CIA’s much-questioned 2008 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iran was not pursuing nuclear weaponry for the simple reason that its atomic program and military programs were housed in separate buildings.

Fourth, Binyamin Netanyahu has just become prime minister of Israel. He is determined to take action before – not after – Iran achieves its nuclear potential. This creates a volatile, hair-trigger situation that could explode at any moment. Hence, the endgame is now vastly closer than it was in mid-January, when many believed Israel might take action during the lame-duck interregnum.

Israeli countermeasures to date have included a massive international covert program of equipment sabotage, assassination of key nuclear personnel and a vibrant diplomatic offensive. But all these efforts combined amount to nothing more than delaying tactics, as Iran is irrevocably determined to achieve a nuclear weapon as fast as possible. Many believe such a weapon will be used to fulfill its prediction that Israel will soon be wiped off the map.

The Consequences for this confrontation are apocalyptic because Iran’s full partner in this enterprise is Russia. The Russian company Atomstroiexport has provided most if not all of the nuclear material for the 1,000 megawatt Bushehr reactor, along with thousands of technicians to service and operate it.

Following its invasion of Georgia, Moscow forged ahead with final delivery plans for the S-300 advanced air defense system which can track scores of IAF airborne intruders simultaneously, whether low-level drones or high-altitude missiles, and shoot them down. But the S-300, the linchpin of Iran’s defense against Israel, will not be fully operational for several months, creating a narrow window for Israel to act. Indeed, Russia has just announced a pause in missile deliveries for the system in fear that it will accelerate an Israeli response.

Iran, of course, has repeatedly threatened to counter any such attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz, as well as launching missiles against the Ras Tanura Gulf oil terminal and bombarding the indispensable Saudi oil facility at Abqaiq which is responsible for some 65 percent of Saudi production. Any one of these military options, let alone all three, would immediately shut off 40% of all seaborne oil, 18% of global oil, and some 20% of America’s daily consumption.

America’s oil vulnerability has been back-burnered due to the economic crisis and the plunge in gasoline prices. However, the price of gasoline will not mitigate an interruption of oil flow. The price of oil does not impact its ability to flow through blocked or destroyed facilities. Indeed, an interruption would not restore prices to those of last summer – which Russian and Saudi oil officials say is needed – but probably zoom the pump cost to $20 per gallon.

American oil vulnerability in recent months has escalated precisely because of oil’s precipitous drop to $35 to $40 a barrel. At that price, America’s number one supplier, Canada, which supplies some 2 million out of 20 million barrels of oil a day, cannot afford to produce. Canadian oil sand petroleum is not viable below $70 a barrel. Much of Canada’s supply has already been cancelled or indefinitely postponed. America’s strategic petroleum reserve can only keep that country moving for approximately 57 days.

The Obama administration, like the Bush administration before it, has developed no plan or contingency legislation for an oil interruption, such as a surge in retrofitting America’s 250 million gas guzzling cars and trucks – each with a 10-year life – or a stimulus of the alternate fuel production needed to rapidly get off oil. Ironically, Iran has undertaken such a crash program converting some 20% of its gasoline fleet yearly to compressed natural gas (CNG) as a countermeasure to Western nuclear sanctions against the Teheran regime that could completely block the flow of gasoline to Iran. Iran has no refining capability.

The question of when and how this endgame will play out is not known by anyone. Israeli leaders wish to avoid military preemption at all costs if possible. But many feel the military moment must come; and when that moment does come, it will be swift, highly technologic and in the twinkling of an eye. But as one informed official quipped, “Those who know, don’t talk. Those who talk, don’t know.”

- From Prophecy News Watch

The Pope’s recent rehabilitation of Holocaust-denying Bishop Richard Williamson outraged Jews worldwide, while a recent TV skit mocking Jesus on Israel’s Channel 10 sparked anger in the Christian world.

Strained Relations

The strained relations between the two faiths prompted the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies to conduct a survey examining the public’s stances towards Christianity, the Christian world and Christian presence in Israel.

The survey revealed an ambivalent approach towards these issues among Israeli Jews: Most respondents believe that schools should teach students about Christianity, but not about the New Testament and that the State should allow freedom of religious exercise, but prevent Christian bodies from purchasing land in Jerusalem.

The survey was conducted by the Smith Institute among 500 respondents that constitute a representative sample of the adult Jewish population in the country.

According to 54% of seculars, Christianity was closer to Judaism than Islam, while only 17% of religious respondents agreed to this statement and 48% said that Islam was in fact closer. Meanwhile, 43% of seculars defined the Catholic Church’s attitude towards Judaism and Jews as positive, while 65% of religious said that it was negative.

Sixty percent of religious and ultra-orthodox respondents said the sight of a person wearing a cross disturbed them, whilst 91% of seculars said they did not mind it.

On almost all issues seculars exhibited an open-minded approach towards Christianity, whereas religious respondents were less than tolerant. Sixty-eight percent of seculars said that Christianity should be taught in schools, and 52% believed that the New Testament should be studied as well. Meanwhile, religious and haredim ruled out any reference to Christianity in school curriculums, 73% and 90% respectively.

Should Jews visit church?

Should Christians be allowed freedom of religious exercise in Israel? Seventy-one percent of seculars replied positively, while 68% of religious respondents opposed. Forty-eight percent of religious said churches’ activity in Israel should be limited, while 48% of seculars said that they should enjoy the same funding Jewish religious institutions receive.

Fifty-one percent of seculars defined the approach of Christian Arab citizens to the State as positive, while 62% of the religious sector said it was negative and 51% claimed that Israel should encourage Christian Arabs to immigrate abroad.

Both sectors believe that the state should prevent Christian bodies from buying land in Jerusalem (64% of seculars and 95% of religious).

Asked whether Jews should be allowed to visit church, 80% of seculars replied positively and 83% of religious respondents answered negatively, with 43% claiming that all or most Christians were missionaries towards Jews; 82% of seculars disagreed with this notion.

On the subject of donations, 70% of seculars said it was okay for Jewish organizations to receive contributions from Christian groups, while 79% of religious respondents disapproved.

- From Prophecy News Watch