A christian blog with a decidedly biblical perspective on the world and events around us. Look around, read, enjoy and feel free to comment. Interesting story, send us the info via our contact page. Subscribe by clicking here.
Subscribe to RSS
In the tony town of New Canaan, students might someday get tracking tags along with their textbooks.
No decisions have yet been made, but school officials plan to look into the possibility of adding radio frequency tags to student or staff ID cards, or place them on school property, like laptops, the New Canaan Advertiser reports.
The company that makes the devices is SecureRF Corporation, based in Westport. It has applied for a $100,000 grant from the National Science Foundation to conduct science research and wants New Canaan High School to use the technology, the Advertiser reports.
“We are looking to test this technology with a partner,” SecureRF’s founder and chief executive officer Louis Parks Parks said during a school board meeting last week. “The primary role we are looking for from you is the feedback and input.”
The technology could be used to track people within the school, something district transportation coordinator Roy Walder said could help during an emergency, such as a fire or a school-wide evacuation, the Advertiser reports, and tracking who is coming and going from the open campus.
Of course, parents might not be thrilled about placing a tracking device on their children, Jim Kucharczyk, a board member, said.
“I can perceive parents would have an issue with tracking kids through the school and through town. … There’s a big difference between putting this on the school bus or putting it on backpacks or an ID card,” Kucharczyk said.
Student involvement would be voluntary and parents would have to agree to it, Supt. Dr. David Abbey, told the Advertiser.
So far, school board members decided only to explore the idea but they’d need more details before agreeing to participate.
Walder said there might be a potential to expand the technology to school buses to track who’s using them and reduce budget costs.
The school board will get another report in a few weeks.
- Prophecy News Watch
Government agents can sneak onto your property in the middle of the night, put a GPS device on the bottom of your car and keep track of everywhere you go. This doesn’t violate your Fourth Amendment rights, because you do not have any reasonable expectation of privacy in your own driveway – and no reasonable expectation that the government isn’t tracking your movements.
That is the bizarre – and scary – rule that now applies in California and eight other Western states. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, which covers this vast jurisdiction, recently decided the government can monitor you in this way virtually anytime it wants – with no need for a search warrant.
It is a dangerous decision – one that, as the dissenting judges warned, could turn America into the sort of totalitarian state imagined by George Orwell. It is particularly offensive because the judges added insult to injury with some shocking class bias: the little personal privacy that still exists, the court suggested, should belong mainly to the rich.
This case began in 2007, when Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents decided to monitor Juan Pineda-Moreno, an Oregon resident who they suspected was growing marijuana. They snuck onto his property in the middle of the night and found his Jeep in his driveway, a few feet from his trailer home. Then they attached a GPS tracking device to the vehicle’s underside.
After Pineda-Moreno challenged the DEA’s actions, a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit ruled in January that it was all perfectly legal. More disturbingly, a larger group of judges on the circuit, who were subsequently asked to reconsider the ruling, decided this month to let it stand. (Pineda-Moreno has pleaded guilty conditionally to conspiracy to manufacture marijuana and manufacturing marijuana while appealing the denial of his motion to suppress evidence obtained with the help of GPS.)
In fact, the government violated Pineda-Moreno’s privacy rights in two different ways. For starters, the invasion of his driveway was wrong. The courts have long held that people have a reasonable expectation of privacy in their homes and in the “curtilage,” a fancy legal term for the area around the home. The government’s intrusion on property just a few feet away was clearly in this zone of privacy.
The judges veered into offensiveness when they explained why Pineda-Moreno’s driveway was not private. It was open to strangers, they said, such as delivery people and neighborhood children, who could wander across it uninvited.
Chief Judge Alex Kozinski, who dissented from this month’s decision refusing to reconsider the case, pointed out whose homes are not open to strangers: rich people’s. The court’s ruling, he said, means that people who protect their homes with electric gates, fences and security booths have a large protected zone of privacy around their homes. People who cannot afford such barriers have to put up with the government sneaking around at night.
Judge Kozinski is a leading conservative, appointed by President Ronald Reagan, but in his dissent he came across as a raging liberal. “There’s been much talk about diversity on the bench, but there’s one kind of diversity that doesn’t exist,” he wrote. “No truly poor people are appointed as federal judges, or as state judges for that matter.” The judges in the majority, he charged, were guilty of “cultural elitism.”
The court went on to make a second terrible decision about privacy: that once a GPS device has been planted, the government is free to use it to track people without getting a warrant. There is a major battle under way in the federal and state courts over this issue, and the stakes are high. After all, if government agents can track people with secretly planted GPS devices virtually anytime they want, without having to go to a court for a warrant, we are one step closer to a classic police state – with technology taking on the role of the KGB or the East German Stasi.
Fortunately, other courts are coming to a different conclusion from the Ninth Circuit’s – including the influential U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. That court ruled, also this month, that tracking for an extended period of time with GPS is an invasion of privacy that requires a warrant. The issue is likely to end up in the Supreme Court.
In these highly partisan times, GPS monitoring is a subject that has both conservatives and liberals worried. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit’s pro-privacy ruling was unanimous – decided by judges appointed by Presidents Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
Plenty of liberals have objected to this kind of spying, but it is the conservative Chief Judge Kozinski who has done so most passionately. “1984 may have come a bit later than predicted, but it’s here at last,” he lamented in his dissent. And invoking Orwell’s totalitarian dystopia where privacy is essentially nonexistent, he warned: “Some day, soon, we may wake up and find we’re living in Oceania.”
- Prophecy News Watch
New crime prediction software being rolled out in the nation’s capital should reduce not only the murder rate, but the rate of many other crimes as well.
Developed by Richard Berk, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, the software is already used in Baltimore and Philadelphia to predict which individuals on probation or parole are most likely to murder and to be murdered.
In his latest version, the one being implemented in D.C., Berk goes even further, identifying the individuals most likely to commit crimes other than murder.
If the software proves successful, it could influence sentencing recommendations and bail amounts.
“When a person goes on probation or parole they are supervised by an officer. The question that officer has to answer is ‘what level of supervision do you provide?’” said Berk.
It used to be that parole officers used the person’s criminal record, and their good judgment, to determine that level.
“This research replaces those seat-of-the-pants calculations,” he said.
Technology Helps Determine Level of Supervision Needed for People on Probation or Parole
Murders, despite their frequent appearance on cop dramas and the evening news, are rare crimes. On average there is one murder for every 100,000 people. Even among high-risk groups the murder rate is one in 100. Trying to predict such a rare event is very difficult, so difficult that many researchers deemed it impossible.
“It’s like trying to find the needle in the haystack,” said Berk.
New advances in computer technology, however, can sift through that haystack more quickly and more accurately than ever.
Beginning several years ago, the researchers assembled a dataset of more than 60,000 various crimes, including homicides. Using an algorithm they developed, they found a subset of people much more likely to commit homicide when paroled or probated. Instead of finding one murderer in 100, the UPenn researchers could identify eight future murderers out of 100.
Berk’s software examines roughly two dozen variables, from criminal record to geographic location. The type of crime, and more importantly, the age at which that crime was committed, were two of the most predictive variables.
Technology Doesn’t Predict Future Crimes
“People assume that if someone murdered then they will murder in the future,” said Berk. “But what really matters is what that person did as a young individual. If they committed armed robbery at age 14 that’s a good predictor. If they committed the same crime at age 30, that doesn’t predict very much.”
Baltimore and Philadelphia are already using Berk’s software to help determine how much supervision parolees should have. Washington, D.C. is now set to use the algorithm to help determine lesser crimes as well. If those tests go well, Berk says the program could help set bail amounts and suggest sentencing recommendations.
Predicting future crimes does sound, well, futuristic, said Berk. Even his students at the University of Pennsylvania compare his research to the Tom Cruise movie “Minority Report.”
Nevertheless, he said, “We aren’t anywhere near being able to do that.”
Scientifically, Berk’s results are “very impressive,” said Shawn Bushway, a professor of criminal justice at the State University of New York at Albany who is familiar with Berk’s research.
Predicting rare events like murder, even among high-risk individuals, is extremely difficult, said Bushway, and Berk is doing a better job of it than anyone else.
But Berk’s scientific answer leaves policymakers with difficult questions, said Bushway. By labeling one group of people as high risk, and monitoring them with increased vigilance, there should be fewer murders, which the potential victims should be happy about.
It also means that those high-risk individuals will be monitored more aggressively. For inmate rights advocates, that is tantamount to harassment, “punishing people who, most likely, will not commit a crime in the future,” said Bushway.
“It comes down to a question of whether you would rather make these errors or those errors,” said Bushway.
- Prophecy News Watch
A Japanese research team said Thursday it had developed the world’s first 3D television system that allows users to touch, pinch or poke images floating in front of them.
“It is the first time that you can feel images in the air,” said Norio Nakamura, senior scientist with the research team at the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology.
“You can have the sense of touch like poking a rubber ball or stretching a sticky rice cake” when manipulating images, he told AFP by telephone.
The technology changes the shape of three-dimensional images in response to “touches”, aided by cameras that monitor how the fingers move, Nakamura said.
It is not known when the technology will be put to practical use but its creators see it being used to simulate surgical operations and in video game software allowing players to experience the sensation of holding weapons or sports equipment.
It could even use scanned images to supplement existing realities, said Nakamura.
“This technology could create a virtual museum where visitors, including vision-impaired people, can put their hands on valuable sculptures that are usually untouchable,” Nakamura said.
- From Prophecy News Watch
The US warned Lebanon that if it did not prevent any recurrence of the border-fire incident that occurred earlier this month, the IDF would destroy the Lebanese Armed Forces within four hours, Israel Radio cited a report by Lebanese newspaper A-Liwaa on Friday.
According to the report, Frederick Hoff, assistant to US Middle East Peace Envoy George Mitchell, told Lebanese Army chief of staff Jean Kahwaji that Israel was ready to implement a plan to destroy within four hours all Lebanese military infrastructure, including army bases and offices, should a similar confrontation occur in the future.
IDF Lt.-Col. (res.) Dov Harari, 45, was killed and Capt. (res.) Ezra Lakia was seriously wounded, as well three LAF soldiers and one Lebanese journalist killed, when both sides exchanged fire after IDF soldiers attempted to cut down a tree on the Israeli side of the border.
The IDF had informed the UNIFIL peacekeeping force along the border ahead of time of the intended tree-clearing operation.
UNIFIL later confirmed that the IDF troops were on the Israeli side of the border when the incident occurred, contradicting LAF claims that Lebanese sniper fire directed at the Israeli troops had been justified by an incursion upon Lebanese territory.
- Prophecy News Watch
The belligerent speech delivered by Hamas’ Damascus-based political leader Khaled Meshaal Tuesday, Aug. 24 only confirmed the information reaching Israel and the Palestinian Authority intelligence services that the extremist Palestinian group is set for large-scale terror attacks against Israeli and Palestinian West Bank targets. debkafile’s intelligence and counter-terror sources report Hamas is setting its sights on torpedoing the direct Israel-Palestinian negotiations Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas are to launch in Washington on Sept. 2.
Hamas is said by our sources to be preparing to activate its West Bank networks for coordinated strikes against a major target inside Israel and another associated with Abbas’ power base or the US- and British-trained Palestinian security forces. However, if those networks are thwarted by the preventive measures set in motion meanwhile, Hamas will resort to attacks from the Gaza Strip which it controls or further South from Sinai, across the leaky Egyptian-Israeli border.
Hamas last attacked Israel on Aug. 2, sending a cell from its military wing, the Izzedin al-Qassam Brigades, to infiltrate Sinai through the arms tunnels running under the Gaza-Sinai border for a rocket attack on the twin Red Sea towns of Israeli Eilat and Jordanian Aqaba. This attack was more extensive than admitted at the time. Our military sources report that seven Iranian-made Grade missiles were fired, hitting the two towns. Two also knocked over two Egyptian military observation towers on the Israeli border and left casualties.
Israeli and Palestinian security officials do not rule out a Hamas strike from Lebanon or even from the Mediterranean Sea.
Meshaal’s speech Tuesday, shortly before the iftar meal breaking the Ramadan fast, was exceptionally vicious. Never before, had he dared vent his fury on Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Abdullah. For the first time, Khaled Meshal not only openly criticized Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Abdullah but threatened them: Should they refuse to boycott the US-sponsored Israel-Palestinian negotiations, he said, “The results… will be catastrophic for the interests and the security of Jordan and Egypt.”
The Hamas leader showed he was even prepared to jeopardize the lifelines given his organization by both Arab governments: Egypt provides Hamas officials and military leaders with their only exit route from Gaza, while Jordan tolerates Hamas’ extensive political organization, which has always been careful not to upset its delicate ties with the royal family and risk its freedom of action there.
Meshaal had only venom to pour on Mahmoud Abbas, who he predicted would end up like Yasser Arafat (a reference to Hamas’ allegations that foreign parties including Israel poisoned him in 2004). He depicted the PA Chairman as an enemy of Islam, accusing him of setting loose Palestinian security forces on mosques, Islamic charitable associations, cultural centers and Koran study groups.
Allowing the Shin Bet director Yuval Diskin to visit Jenin -”the city of martyrs – was unconscionable, Meshaal said, and so was permitting Israeli officers to be present at training courses for Palestinian security officers.
The direct talks with Israel, he said, aimed at “liquidating” the Palestinian cause.
Meshaal’s speech was the last straw, Palestinian and other Arab intelligence officials said Wednesday: The breach between him and Mahmoud Abbas must be seen as final and irrevocable.
- Prophecy News Watch
A study of the mood among Israeli leaders and military chiefs indicates that at any moment a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites must be taken into account. The Israeli media show nothing of this; they are totally absorbed in guessing whether Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will extend the 10-month settlement construction moratorium beyond its Sept. 25 expiry date at the talks opening with the Palestinians next week. The American media, in contrast, are highlighting speculation about a possible Israeli attack on Iran.
debkafile’s Washington and Jerusalem sources believe Israel has revived its military option against Iran – especially since Iran activated its first nuclear reactor at Bushehr on Aug. 21, thereby placing Washington under enormous pressure. In addition to the dire predictions of catastrophe planted on various op-ed pages, the Obama administration this week sent two big guns to Jerusalem to try and check an Israel attack.
The first to arrive was International Atomic Energy Agency Director Yukiya Amano, who explained that under his stewardship the nuclear watchdog’s treatment of Iran would be quite different from the lenience shown by his predecessor, Mohamed ElBaradei. He promised its inspectors would henceforth clamp down hard on Iran’s nuclear activities including the Bushehr reactor.
Thursday, Aug. 26, Amano was joined by Daniel Shapiro, Middle East Director of the National Security Council and close friend of many Israeli leaders. He came laden with offers of security gifts – possible rewards both for restraint on Iran and as a softener for Netanyahu to be generous with concessions to the Palestinians in the forthcoming negotiations.
Shapiro has taken three days to make his pitch on Iran, while Netanyahu has less than a week to decide whether he can again trust the US president’s new promises after they were not exactly upheld in the way the Bushehr reactor was allowed to go on stream or the modalities for the negotiations with the Palestinians.
While preparing the Shapiro mission, the administration let it be known that the security gifts on offer would be dramatic and make the IDF one of the strongest and most advanced armies in the world.
Advance notice came in a series of leaks to former CIA officer Bruce Riedel, who is very close to President Obama, for an article he published in the influential The National Interest on Aug. 25 under the caption “If Israel Attacks.”
Riedel urged the US to do everything in its power to stop an attack happening as it would spell catastrophe and advised Israel to adjust to the fact that the development of an Iranian atom bomb can no longer be halted.
To make Israel feel secure in the new reality, Riedel “proposed” four steps for strengthening the Israeli armed forces and lending it a second-strike capability – even against an Iranian nuclear attack.
1. The US must spread a nuclear umbrella over Israel that would entail the installation of American nuclear depots in Israel to show Tehran that a nuclear attack on the Jewish state would meet with a US nuclear response.
2. American nuclear submarines would be supplied to the Israeli Navy as the backbone of its nuclear counter-strike capability. There are two categories – ballistic missile submarines and attack submarines.
3. The Israeli Air Force would receive US F-22 Raptor stealth jets, the most sophisticated warplane in the skies today. They would be equipped with all the systems and ordnance needed to strike the Iranian nuclear program.
4. The US would arrange for Israel’s full membership of NATO, so rendering an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel subject not just to US retaliation but a declaration of war by the 26-member alliance.
To qualify for these American security perks, Riedel made it clear that Israel would be required to come to terms with a nuclear-armed Iran and eschew military action against it, a provision which debkafile’s military and Jerusalem sources say the Netanyahu government is most unlikely to accept.
For the Riedel analysis, which runs to 3,600 words, has a built-in contradiction. He portrays the Iranian leadership as consisting, behind their fiery rhetoric, of reasonable people who, when it comes down to it, will react to military and political pressure situations in a way that will not endanger their regime and their country’s very survival.
However, this proposition does not take into account the Islamic Republic rulers’ persistent threats to wipe Israel off the map (without regard to the hazards this would incur) or his own and the Obama administration’s conviction that if Israel attacks Iran, Tehran will hit back at US targets and interests (even more hazardous).
debkafile’s sources ask: Why would a “reasonable” regime risk going to war with America instead of limiting its military action to Israel?
And what good would all the wonderful new military systems be to Israel for a second-strike capability when an initial Iranian nuclear attack would suffice to destroy the tiny Jewish state?
- Prophecy News Watch
A foreign spy agency has pulled off the most serious breach of computer networks in Pentagon history by inserting a flash drive into a U.S. military laptop, Washington has admitted.
The previously classified incident, which took place in 2008 in the Middle-East, was disclosed in a magazine article by Deputy Defence Secretary William J Lynn.
He said a ‘malicious code’ on the flash drive spread undetected on both classified and unclassified Pentagon systems, ‘establishing what amounted to a digital beachhead, from which data could be transferred to servers under foreign control’.
Writing in an article for Foreign Affairs, Mr Lynn said: ‘It was a network administrator’s worst fear: a rogue program operating silently, poised to deliver operational plans into the hands of an unknown adversary.
The Pentagon operation to counter the attack, known as Operation Buckshot Yankee, marked a turning point in U.S. cyber-defence strategy, he said.
In November 2008, the U.S. Defence Department banned the use of the small high-tech storage devices that are used to move data from one computer to another. The ban was partially lifted early this year with the approval of limited use of the devices.
Mr Lynn did not disclose what, if any, military secrets may have been stolen in the 2008 penetration of the system, what nation orchestrated the attack, nor whether there were any other repercussions.
The article went on to warn that U.S. adversaries can threaten American military might without building stealth fighters, aircraft carriers or other expensive weapons systems.
‘A dozen determined computer programmers can, if they find a vulnerability to exploit, threaten the United States’ global logistics network, steal its operational plans, blind its intelligence capabilities, or hinder its ability to deliver weapons on target,’ Mr Lynn wrote.
‘Knowing this, many militaries are developing offensive capabilities in cyberspace, and more than 100 foreign intelligence organizations are trying to break into U.S. networks,’ he said.
Defence officials have said repeatedly that the military system of some 15,000 computer networks and seven million computers suffers millions of probes a day with threats coming from a range of attackers from routine hackers to foreign governments looking to steal sensitive information or bring down critical, life-sustaining systems.
- Prophecy News Watch
The Obama administration plans to present Israel and the Palestinian Authority with a new outline aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.
The Yedioth Ahronoth daily has learned that the Americans will pressure the parties to sign a framework agreement for a permanent settlement within one year, but that the agreement itself would be implemented within 10 years.
The American administration plans to invest every effort to guarantee that the direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians, which will be launched officially next Thursday, will end with an agreement rather than with a crisis, as in previous negotiations.
US President Barack Obama, whose approval rating has hit a new low, is interested in marking his first success in the Middle East, in light of the ongoing bloodshed in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This time, Obama plans to get into the thick of things himself. Daniel Shapiro, the National Security Council’s top Middle East expert, told the leaders of the American Jewish organizations that the president planned to visit Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the coming year.
During his visit, Obama will try to convince the two sides to support painful concessions for the sake of peace.
Several days ago, leaders of the American Jewish organizations held a conference call with three of the top officials determining the Obama administration’s Middle East policy – Shapiro, Dennis Ross and David Hale, deputy of US special Middle East envoy George Mitchell.
Ross has been involved in all the talks between Israel and the Palestinians since the Oslo Accords. He is considered today Obama’s No. 1 expert on Middle Eastern affairs.
Gesture from Arab states
Yedioth Ahronoth has obtained the protocol summarizing the conference call, written by White House officials. The document provides a fascinating peek into the administration’s plans in the near future.
According to the American plan, the Israeli and Palestinian negotiation teams would hold hectic talks in a bid to reach a framework agreement within a year. The intensive talks would be held in isolated sites, so as to allow the teams to calmly discuss the core issues of the permanent agreement: Jerusalem’s future, the borders, the settlements and the refugees.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would be required to hold frequent meetings in order to solve concrete problems and advance the negotiations’ stages.
If the talks reach a deadlock, American officials would intervene and attempt to bridge between the sides. In addition, the US would try to convince the Arab states to offer goodwill gestures to Israel and influence the Palestinians to compromise.
The framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict would be signed within a year. From that moment on, the agreement would be implemented gradually over a period of several years.
Ross estimated in the conference call that many elements would try to sabotage the talks. “Our challenge would be to guarantee their success,” he stated.
The Jewish leaders asked him what could be learned from the mistakes which caused the previous attempts to solve the conflict to fail. I learned that we must not accept a situation in which the parties say one thing inside the room and something else outside the room, he replied.
In other words, the administration would not regard favorably a situation in which Israeli and Palestinian officials “blast” each other outside the meeting room.
“Can Netanyahu reach an agreement which would gain political support in Israel?” the Jewish leaders asked. Hale replied that Netanyahu had promised he would be able to do that. We view him as a strong partner committed to he process, he said.
Lieberman refuses to attend summit
Senior diplomatic officials in Israel have revealed, however, that Netanyahu has yet to prepare a firm stand ahead of the direct talks. The government has yet to agree on the outline for the permanent agreement, no to mention the settlement construction freeze.
“Bibi will barely escape Washington,” a senior state official estimated.
Minister Dan Meridor, backed by Netanyahu, is trying to convince Ross and Shapiro to agree to the outline he suggested ahead of the end of the settlement construction moratorium on September 26: The building freeze would only continue in isolated settlements, but construction would be resumed in the settlement blocs expected to remain under Israel’s control. Only one minister, Ehud Barak, has expressed his support for this idea so far.
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman believes the Americans should be informed that the construction will continue without any restrictions in settlement blocs, and will be renewed in isolated settlements according to the residents’ natural growth.
The Palestinians, on their part, have already clarified their demands ahead of the direct talks, the first one being the establishment of a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.
Upon the start of the negotiations, the Palestinians will demand that Israel withdraw from the northern Dead Sea as part of a gesture before continuing the talks. The PA is expected to agree to a land exchange with Israel: In return for 3.9% of the West Bank area where the settlement blocs are located, the Palestinians expect to receive lands in the Negev.
Meanwhile, Yedioth Ahronoth has learned that Lieberman rejected the prime minister’s request to join him on his trip to Washington ahead of Thursday’s summit. According to reliable sources, the foreign minister told Netanyahu he would not attend celebrations he has no faith in.
- Prophecy News Watch
Southern California is long overdue for a major earthquake along the San Andreas fault, according to a landmark study of historic seismic activity released Friday.
The study, produced after several years of field studies in the Carrizo Plain area about 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles, found that earthquakes along the San Andreas fault have occurred far more often than previously believed.
For years, scientists have said major earthquakes occurred every 250 to 450 years along this part of the San Andreas. The new study found big temblors on the fault every 88 years, on average.
The last massive earthquake on that part of the fault was in 1857, leading scientists to warn that another such temblor is likely in Southern California.
“The next earthquake could be sooner than later,” said Lisa Grant Ludwig, a University of California-Irvine earthquake expert and co-author of the study, which was published online in the journal Geology.
Other seismic experts described the revelation as a major change in the way they think about earthquake risks along the southern San Andreas fault.
Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, said the fault is “locked and loaded.”
“It’s been a long time since an earthquake has occurred on that fault – over 150 years,” Jordan said.
To reach the new conclusion, scientists dug trenches deep into the Carrizo Plain. They used carbon dating and sophisticated imaging technology known as lidar to find signs of earth movements. They were able to detect earthquakes dating back to the 15th century, creating a far more complete record than had previously been known.
The research found that earlier examinations of the San Andreas had badly undercounted the number of major earthquakes. Those were based on observations made in the 1970s when scientists used measuring tape to look for evidence of past earthquakes.
“Now we have better techniques,” Ludwig said. “We can see there’s actually more earthquakes.”
Scientists now estimate that earthquakes occurred on that section of the fault in 1417, 1462, 1565, 1614 and 1713.
The finding adds weight to the view of many seismologists that the San Andreas has been in a quiet period and that a major rupture is possible. A 2009 study, in which Ludwig also participated, suggested that the San Andreas was overdue for a rupture. But Friday’s report offers a much more grim estimate of how frequently quakes have occurred on that segment of the fault.
The San Andreas fault is considered one of the most dangerous in Southern California, partly because it is so long that its southern section is capable of producing a temblor as large as magnitude 8.1.
By contrast, earthquake experts consider 1994′s destructive 6.7-magnitude Northridge quake, which occurred on a different fault, to be a medium-size quake.
The San Andreas is a sleeping giant. It’s hard to imagine the power of a huge quake on the southern section because the last one occurred in 1857 when the area was sparsely populated. Just 4,000 people lived in Los Angeles at the time.
That temblor, with an estimated magnitude 7.9, is known as the Fort Tejon quake, but that’s a bit of a misnomer because it is thought to have started in Parkfield in Monterey County. The quake then barreled south on the San Andreas about 200 miles, through Fort Tejon near the northern edge of what is now Los Angeles County.
The quake was so powerful that the soil liquefied, causing trees as far away as Stockton to sink. Trees were also uprooted west of Fort Tejon. The shaking lasted 1 to 3 minutes.
The study was conducted by scientists at UC Irvine and Arizona State University. As preliminary data went out for peer review, other earthquake scientists took note.
The U.S. Geological Survey was so concerned that it dispatched its own team of investigators to the Carrizo Plain to look over the initial findings and review the evidence in the trenches.
- Prophecy News Watch
viagra and hearing loss Ed Treatment Natural Female use of viagra female version of viagra 761.
erectile dysfunction vacuums Cialis Dysfunction Erectile Levitra how to get viagra
herbal remedy for erectile dysfunction; Erectile Dysfunction Psychological Zocor erectile dysfunction zoloft erectile dysfunction 147.
robin williams viagra Viagra Spray "explore advances in male impotence treatments"
viagra perscription online Natural Remedy Erectile Dysfunction male hormone dhea impotence levels
will ferrell erectile dysfunction Viagra Perscription Online ed treatment with ginko
erectile dysfunction pills evaluated; On Viagra "non prescription viagra"
cialis viagra How To Buy Viagramale impotence age
Cigarette smoking and erectile dysfunction cigarette smoking causing male impotence 395. Impotence Viagra The latest treatment for ed topical ed treatment 237.
most effective ed treatment! Viagra 50 Mg actos erectile dysfunction
l dopa for male impotence! Buy Cheap Viagra erectile dysfunction and pravastatin;
male impotence pumps vacu Holistic Ed Treatment cost of viagra
female forcing male sexual impotence; Male Impotence Brochure actos erectile dysfunction
accounting treatment for sr ed Water Ed Treatment Male impotence due to surgery male impotence enema 629.
lamictal erectile dysfunction! Accounting Treatment Sr Ed Ias "buy viagra online"
problems with viagra, Viagra Cheap erectile dysfunction link suggest
"non prescription viagra" Viagra Uk viagra times;
viagra soft tabs? Ed Treatments erectile dysfunction ed treatment
u 3312 viagra cialis Male Impotence Advice yohimbie bark and male impotence
facts male impotence psychological effects
lexapro erectile dysfunction,
erectile dysfunction paypal, Zetia And Erectile Dysfunction straighttalk net erectile dysfunction review
male impotence and solutions? Make Your Own Viagra newest transdermal treatment for ed
tricor erectile dysfunction Hebal Ed Treatmenterectile dysfunction exercise
Viagra and alternatives viagra and blood pressure 767. How To Make Viagra how to take viagra
cialis medication erectile dysfunction Erectile Dysfunction Pills accupril and erectile dysfunction
Subscribe to RSS
